Peer-reviewed publications

Peer-reviewed publications

Journal articles and book chapter

  1. Financial development and income inequality in Indonesia: A sub-national level analysis with Wahyu S. Baskoro and Debby A. Soraya (Economics and Finance in Indonesia (2018), 64(2), 111-130)
  2. Does the law of one price hold in 82 Indonesian cities? Evidence from club convergence approach (Economics Bulletin (2020), 40(4), 2844-2858)
  3. Spatial dynamics of consumer price in Indonesia: convergence clubs and conditioning factors (Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science (2020), 5, 427-451)
  4. Regional economic growth convergence and spatial growth spillovers at times of COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia with Ragdad C. Miranti and Carlos Mendez (Indonesian Regional Science Association (2021), IRSA Book Series No.19, 266-290)
  5. Regional economic structure and heterogeneous effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Indonesian provinces with Masakazu Someya (Journal of Economic Structures (2022), 11(1), 1-25)
  6. Testing for convergence clubs in real wage across Indonesian provinces from 2008 to 2020 with M. Rifki Maulana (Regional Statistics (2022), 12(3), 104-130)
  7. Spatiotemporal analysis of regional inflation in an emerging country: the case of Indonesia (Regional Science Policy & Practice (2022), 14(3), 667-668)
  8. Does GVC participation help industrial upgrading in developing countries? New evidence from panel data analysis with Bangkit A. Wiryawan and Al Muizzuddin Fazaalloh (The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development (2022), 32(7), 1112-1129)
  9. Regional income disparities and convergence clubs in Indonesia: new district-level evidence with Anang B. Gunawan and Carlos Mendez (Journal of the Asia-Pacific Economy (2023), 28(1), 101-132)
  10. Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data? (Journal of Asian Economics (2023), 85)
  11. Inflation and spatial spillovers in a large archipelago: Evidence from Indonesia (Economic Papers, 2023)
  12. Investigating regional income convergence in China: an exploratory spatio-temporal perspective with Yilin Chen and Dohèto Othniel Kpoviessi (Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences (2023), 16, 17)
  13. Regional Okun’s law and endogeneity: Evidence from the Indonesian districts with Carlos Mendez and Masakazu Someya (Applied Economics Letters (2023), Forthcoming)

Working papers

  1. Regional growth, convergence, and heterogeneity in Sumatra: Evidence from new satellite data (Conference paper of Sumatranomics, 2021) with Ragdad C. Miranti and SS Yan.

    Abstract: The use of night-time lights data are increasingly applied for assessing performance of economies. This paper attempts to examine regional growth convergence across 147 districts in Sumatra over the period 2012-2020 using satellite night-time lights data. We first evaluate the usefulness of the night-time lights indicator in the context of Sumatra regions. Results show that almost 77 percent of the variability in (official) GDP per capita can be explained by this satellite night-time lights data of GDP. Next, given its potential advantage for predicting regional GDP, we evaluate the existence of convergence and the role of spatial heterogeneity across Sumatra districts. Our findings support the evidence of heterogeneity both in convergence patterns and the role of growth determinants across districts, in addition to observed overall (average) process of regional convergence. Specifically, the northern parts of Sumatra experience a higher speed of convergence compared to the southern area. In addition, internet and credit access demonstrate significant yet different magnitude across Sumatra districts. Looking from policy perspectives, our findings suggest that one-size-fits-all policy is not desirable for promoting equal growth across Sumatra districts. Spatially-based policies are instead more demanded to support equal growth.

  2. Spatial Okun’s law for a set of islands? The case of Indonesia (2022, under review) with Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic and Carlos Mendez.

    Abstract: This paper estimates the Okun’s law using a spatial panel approach for Indonesian’s districts over the period 2009-2020. Given the geography of the archipelago, we deviate from the traditional definitions of neighbors and use instead a Thiessen polygons structure to capture the spillovers from neighboring regions. Our results show that the Okun’s Law relies heavily on the regional economic and industrial structure, revealing a differentiated Okun’s coefficient for eastern (agrarian) and western (industrialized) provinces. The magnitude of the spillovers support the appropriateness of using the Thiessen polygons structure to build the weight matrix.

  3. Key sectors and spatial clusters in Indonesia: Evidence from the inter-regional input-output tables (2023, under review) with Christian Otchia.

    Abstract: Spatial analysis that considers geographical factors can potentially bring value to the regional study of key sectors — the sectors that have higher impacts relative to others. Utilizing the most disaggregated data from the Inter-Regional Input-Output Tables (IRIO) 2016 covering 34 provinces and 52 sectors, this study aims to identify key sectors and spatial clusters in Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelago with diverse socio-economic conditions among regions. In the first stage, the paper identifies key sectors based on the forward and backward linkages. The second stage of the paper focuses on identifying spatial clusters of the key sectors using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA). Electricity, several manufacturing industries, transportation, warehousing, and business services have been highlighted as key sectors. The respective province for the key sectors is also documented. Furthermore, the results from ESDA show two sectors that form significant spatial clusters: 1) the rubber industry and 2) the basic metal industry. Moran’s scatter plot reveals the respective cluster provinces for each sector. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of complementing standard key sector analysis with exploratory spatial analysis to identify the spatial clustering of key sectors. From a policy standpoint, the findings of this paper can assist the Indonesian government in better planning regional development programs, such as investment promotion, to boost economic performance throughout the nation.

  4. Mapping Indonesia’s regional growth during and post-COVID-19 pandemic: A spatiotemporal approach (2023, conference paper).

    Abstract: This study aims to analyse spatiotemporal dynamics of regional economic growth in Indonesia during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. To achieve the goal, it employs a spatiotemporal exploratory framework that considers the interconnectedness among spatial units. The findings highlight the presence of multifaceted spatial co-movements in regional economic growth throughout different phases of the pandemic crisis. By uncovering these spatial patterns, the study contributes in providing a more nuanced understanding of the impact of the pandemic on regional economic growth. Additionally, the study utilizes regional GDP data, both at the aggregate and industry level, enabling a comprehensive analysis of sector-specific effects. Finally, the study produces novel insights and policy implications.

  5. From inception to operation: the causal impact of SEZs on GVC participation (2023, under review) with Nilaphy Phommachanh, Bangkit A. Wiryawan and Al Muizzuddin Fazaalloh.

    Abstract: This study examines the impact of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) on Global Value Chain (GVC) participation in a cross-country setting. Applying a causal inference framework on cross-country data spanning from 1990 to 2017, this study disentangles the effects of SEZ laws and their operationalization on GVC participation. Results from our baseline model demonstrate a positive causal link between the establishment of SEZs and GVC participation. Remarkably, the operationalization of SEZs amplifies this effect, increasing it by 13% to 17% on average. Furthermore, the impacts of SEZs primarily stem from enhancing domestic value added (DVA) rather than foreign value added (FVA). This paper makes a significant contribution by building a novel dataset that differentiates between phases of SEZs and evaluates the impacts on GVC and its components with an emphasis on the manufacturing sector. Overall, this study highlights the importance of effectively operationalizing SEZs to maximize their impact on GVC participation and, eventually, foster economic growth.

On-progress research projects

  1. Regional luminosity through the lens of the spatial Solow model: Evidence from Java, Indonesia

Conference presentations

  • Spatial Okun’s law for a set of islands? The case of Indonesia (The 62nd European Regional Science Association (ERSA) Congress, Aug 28 - Sep 1, 2023)
  • Mapping Indonesia’s regional growth during and post-COVID-19 pandemic: A spatiotemporal approach (The 18th Indonesian Regional Science Association (IRSA) International Conference, July 17-18, 2023)
  • Regional heterogeneity and the Phillips curve in an emerging country: The case of Indonesia (The 4th Warsaw Money-Macro-Finance Conference, September 20-21, 2022)
  • Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data? (PRSCO 2022 27th Pacific Conference of the RSAI 2022 in Kyoto, August 1-4, 2022)
  • Regional economic growth convergence and spatial growth spillovers at times of COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia (Indonesia Regional Science Association (IRSA) 16th International Conference, Yogyakarta, July 12-13, 2021)
  • Regional economic structure and heterogeneous effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Indonesian provinces (The 5th International Conference on Economic Structures, Kobe, March 20-21, 2021)
  • Spatial dynamics of consumer price in Indonesia: convergence clubs and conditioning factors (The 19th International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association, November, 19-20, 2020)

Op-ed articles

Data projects