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PhD student at Nagoya University and researcher at Bank Indonesia

Email: aginta.harry.w6@s.mail.nagoya-u.ac.jp; harry_ag@bi.go.id

Research interests

  • Development economics
  • Regional economics
  • Monetary economics
  • Applied econometrics

Research publications

  1. Financial Development and Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Sub-national Level Analysis (Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 2018)
  2. Does the law of one price hold in 82 Indonesian cities? Evidence from club convergence approach (Economics Bulletin, 2020)
  3. Spatial dynamics of consumer price in Indonesia: convergence clubs and conditioning factors (Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2020)
  4. Regional income disparities and convergence clubs in Indonesia: new district-level evidence (Journal of the Asia-Pacific Economy, 2021)
  5. Regional Economic Growth Convergence and Spatial Growth Spillovers at Times of COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia (Indonesian Regional Science Association, IRSA Book Series No.19, 2021)
  6. Regional economic structure and heterogeneous effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Indonesian provinces (Journal of Economic Structures, 2022)
  7. Testing for convergence clubs in real wage across Indonesian provinces from 2008 to 2020 (Regional Statistics, 2022)
  8. Spatiotemporal analysis of regional inflation in an emerging country: the case of Indonesia (Regional Science Policy & Practice, 2022)

Working papers

  1. Regional growth, convergence, and heterogeneity in Sumatra: Evidence from new satellite data (2021)

    Abstract: The use of night-time lights data are increasingly applied for assessing performance of economies. This paper attempts to examine regional growth convergence across 147 districts in Sumatra over the period 2012-2020 using satellite night-time lights data. We first evaluate the usefulness of the night-time lights indicator in the context of Sumatra regions. Results show that almost 77 percent of the variability in (official) GDP per capita can be explained by this satellite night-time lights data of GDP. Next, given its potential advantage for predicting regional GDP, we evaluate the existence of convergence and the role of spatial heterogeneity across Sumatra districts. Our findings support the evidence of heterogeneity both in convergence patterns and the role of growth determinants across districts, in addition to observed overall (average) process of regional convergence. Specifically, the northern parts of Sumatra experience a higher speed of convergence compared to the southern area. In addition, internet and credit access demonstrate significant yet different magnitude across Sumatra districts. Looking from policy perspectives, our findings suggest that one-size-fits-all policy is not desirable for promoting equal growth across Sumatra districts. Spatially-based policies are instead more demanded to support equal growth.

  2. Does GVC participation help industrial upgrading in developing countries? New evidence from panel data analysis (2021, under review)

    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of manufacturing global value chain (GVC) participation on industrial upgrading in developing countries. After constructing a novel manufacturing GVC dataset for 37 countries from 2001 to 2017, we apply panel fixed-effect estimation to evaluate whether value chain integration could lead to industrial upgrading. Our findings show that increasing participation in manufacturing GVC has led to structural change in the industrial sector. In the baseline model, we find a percentage rise in manufacturing GVC corresponds to 0.35 – 0.43 % increase in the share of high-tech sector. Further analysis reveals that the upgrading channel is primarily derived from forward linkages, while backward linkages contribute in diminishing low-tech manufacturing activities. Our findings are robust under alternative specification methods. This linear transformation confirms earlier studies and thus highlights the critical role of GVC in promoting industrial upgrading in developing countries.

  3. Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data? (2022, under review)

    Abstract: This study seeks new empirical evidence of the Phillips curve in Indonesia, an emerging and geographically diversified economy. There are three important contributions from this research. First, applying panel econometric method to exploit regional variation, the study resolves the issue of using on-target national inflation rates that potentially causes weakening inflation-output link. Second, the research examines the relevance of mining industry for output gap measurement at regional level. Third, it highlights the differences in the Phillips curve between the west and east regions owing to their different underlying economic structures. Our estimation using regional data support the validity of the Phillips curve relationship in Indonesia. Backward-looking inflation expectations, exchange rate dynamics and international commodity prices also significantly affect inflation. In addition, the elasticity of the output gap is higher if the mining sector is excluded from output gap measurement. Finally, we find apparent differences between the west and the eastern regions in the slope of Phillips curve, as well as in the degree of inflation persistence and exchange rate pass-through. Our findings add significantly to the empirical literature on the Phillips curve and have meaningful policy implications.

  4. Spatial Okun’s law for a set of islands? The case of Indonesia (2022, under review)

    Abstract: This paper estimates the Okun’s law using a spatial panel approach for Indonesian’s districts over the period 2009-2020. Given the geography of the archipelago, we deviate from the traditional definitions of neighbors and use instead a Thiessen polygons structure to capture the spillovers from neighboring regions. Our results show that the Okun’s Law relies heavily on the regional economic and industrial structure, revealing a differentiated Okun’s coefficient for eastern (agrarian) and western (industrialized) provinces. The magnitude of the spillovers support the appropriateness of using the Thiessen polygons structure to build the weight matrix.

  5. Inflation dynamics in Indonesia: A note from regional perspective (2022, under review)

    Abstract: This study empirically models the Phillips curve using data from 34 Indonesian provinces from 2015 to 2019 and makes three primary contributions to the literature. First, in light of the observed flattening Phillips curve in recent years, which may be related to the adoption of the Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF), this study tests the Phillips curve relationship using subnational data in a panel structure. Second, it is the first attempt to model inflation dynamics in Indonesia while factoring in spatial externality or spillover effects. Third, the study contrasts alternative measurements of inflation and output gap. The results show the presence of a conventional Phillips curve with distinct behaviour of spatial spillover effects across different measurement of inflation and output gap.

On-progress research projects

  1. The determinants and spatial spillovers of income across districts in Java, Indonesia: What the new nighttime light data say?
  2. Explaining regional income convergence in China: An exploratory spatio-temporal perspective

Conference presentations

  • Regional economic growth convergence and spatial growth spillovers at times of COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia (Indonesia Regional Science Association (IRSA) 16th International Conference, Yogyakarta, July 12-13, 2021)
  • Regional economic structure and heterogeneous effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Indonesian provinces (The 5th International Conference on Economic Structures, Kobe, March 20-21, 2021)
  • Spatial dynamics of consumer price in Indonesia: convergence clubs and conditioning factors (The 19th International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association, November, 19-20, 2020)

Data projects

Op-ed articles

Virtual internship

Researchgate

Deepnote

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